matthewhatfield.com Blog

One of the biggest surprises of the 2013 NFL Draft came when the Buffalo Bills selected quarterback EJ Manuel 16th overall in the first round.  Many draft analysts and experts projected Manuel to be the second or third QB chosen, expected to go in the second round.

 

Manuel, a product of Virginia Beach’s Bayside High School, won four bowl games at Florida State University, where he set several ACC and school passing records, including highest completion percentage. 

 

During the July 20th edition of High School Sports Talk Presented by VirginiaPreps.com on ESPN Radio 94.1, Coach Ed Young and Matthew Hatfield caught up with Manuel.  You can listen to that interview at the link below:

 

The Fifth Annual VirginiaPreps.com Basketball Classic Presented by Cox 11 Sports is set for Saturday, Janaury 5, 2013 at Virginia Wesleyan College.  Several of the top teams and players from the Tidewater area and entire Commonwealth will be on display.  See the link below for the matchups and info on ticket prices.

 

 

You can saev $2 by pre-reserving tickets now via e-mail at tickets@matthewhatfield.com. 

 

ALSO – a portion of the proceeds will go towards Cancer Research in honor of my friend, the late great Terry R. Sisisky, former broadcaster at VCU and Petersburg High School.  Come out and support a good cause and enjoy some of the finest basketball at the prep level in the state of Virginia!!!

Time now for Week 1 NFL Picks.  In case you missed it earlier, see my Season Predictions for 2012 division-by-division and throughout the playoff:  http://matthewhatfield.com/Football/Hatfield_2012_NFLSeason_Picks.pdf

 

A quick review of Thursday night and last year.

 

Thursday:  0-1 (pick was NYG 27-20, Dallas won 24-17)
Last season:  72% SU, 59%ATS

 

 

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears
Pick – Chicago 31-14 (CHI -9.5)

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Pick – Philly 17-10 (CLE +9)

 

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Pick – Detroit 28-20 (STL +8.5)

 

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Pick – New England 27-13 (NE -5.5)

 

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

Pick – Atlanta 35-17 (ATL -2)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

Pick – Minnesota 19-13 (MN -3.5)

 

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Pick – New Orleans 35-20 (NO -8.5)

 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Pick – NY Jets 20-10 (NYJ -3)

 

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Pick – Houston 31-10 (HOU -13)

 

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Pick – Green Bay 28-19 (GB -5)

 

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Pick – Arizona 27-24 in OT (AZ +2.5)

 

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick – Tampa Bay 21-16 (TB +2.5)

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Pick – Denver 23-20 (DEN -1.5)

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Pick – Baltimore 24-12 (BLT -7)

 

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Pick – San Diego 20-14 (SD PK)

 

 

 

The 2012 NFL season is here!  At the link below, check out my picks for each division in the AFC and NFC, how the playoffs will turn out and who I’ve got in Super Bowl XLVII (47).

 

The
2012 MLB Season is just underway. There are plenty of storylines to watch as
the St. Louis Cardinals try to defend their World Series crown after Albert
Pujols departed to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Also on the move was Prince
Fielder, leaving Milwaukee for Detroit. Several teams are expected to contend,
such as the Yankees, Phillies and two-time reigning AL Champion Texas Rangers.

Let’s
get right to it now with our division-by-division picks through the playoffs
below!

AL East:

#1 NY
Yankees

#2 Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)

#3 Boston Red Sox

#4 Toronto Blue Jays

#5 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central:

#1
Detroit Tigers

#2 Cleveland Indians

#3 Chicago White Sox

#4 Kansas City Royals

#5 Minnesota Twins

AL West:

#1 Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim

#2 Texas Rangers (Wild Card)

#3 Oakland Athletics

#4 Seattle Mariners

AL Playoffs:

Wild
Card Round – Rays over Rangers

ALDS – Tigers over Rays, Angels over Yankees

ALCS – Tigers over Yankees

ALCS MVP – Tigers SP Justin Verlander

NL East:

#1
Philadelphia Phillies

#2 Miami Marlins (Wild Card)

#3 Washington Nationals

#4 Atlanta Braves

#5 New York Mets

NL Central:

#1 St.
Louis Cardinals

#2 Cincinnati Reds

#3 Chicago Cubs

#4 Milwaukee Brewers

#5 Pittsburgh Pirates

#6 Houston Astros

NL West:

#1 Los
Angeles Dodgers

#2 San Francisco Giants (Wild Card)

#3 Arizona Diamondbacks

#4 Colorado Rockies

#5 San Diego Padres

NL Playoffs:

Wild
Card Round – Marlins over Giants

NLDS – Marlins over Cardinals, Dodgers over Phillies

NLCS – Marlins over Dodgers

NLCS MVP – Marlins 3B Hanley Ramirez

World Series Pick – Tigers over Marlins in 6

World Series MVP – Tigers 1B Prince Fielder

Season Picks:

AL MVP – Rangers OF Josh Hamilton

AL
Cy Young – Yankees SP C.C.
Sabathia

AL
Manager of the Year – Tampa
Bay’s Joe Maddon

NL MVP – Dodgers OF Matt Kemp

NL
Cy Young – Giants SP Matt
Cain

NL
Manager of the Year – Washington’s
Davey Johnson

#1
Kentucky (37-2) vs. #2 Kansas (32-6):  It’s
Monday night and time for the 2012 National Championship.  We’ve gotten through March Madness, all the
crazy upsets, unpredictable drama and excitement with two teams on the brink of
reaching the pinnacle of College Basketball. 

For Kentucky Coach John
Calipari, he is seeking that elusive title, the one that got away in 2008
when he was the Head Coach at Memphis and his Tigers blew what appeared to be a
safe lead in the closing moments against Bill
Self’s Kansas Jayhawks.  Calipari’s
Cats are the prohibited favorite, taking on a Kansas team that rallied from 13
down in the Final Four on Saturday night to stun Ohio State.  Kentucky got past in-state rival Louisville
in Saturday’s National Semifinal to set the stage for a fascinating clash
between the two winningest programs in College Basketball history.

There will be several future pros on the floor with all
five starters for Kentucky expected to go in the first round of the next NBA
Draft, headlined by the likely #1 and #2 picks in Anthony Davis (15.2PPG, 11.6RPG, 4.6BPG in NCAA Tournament) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist respectively.  Kansas has their share as well with at least
three projected to be picked, highlighted by All-American forward Thomas Robinson (16.4PPG, 11.6RPG in
NCAA Tourney).  These two teams met
earlier in the season at Madison Square Garden in a matchup where the scored
was tied at half-time, then Kentucky pulled away in the second half for a
double-digit win.

Before we get to the analysis, Keys to Victory and pick,
let’s review the records of how my predictions have gone to this point in the
2012 NCAA Tournament.

Hatfield’s
Record:
Total:  49-13 (.790)
Round of 64:  22-10 with 13-3 on Day 1
and 9-7 on Day 2
Round of 32:  14-2
12 of 16 Sweet 16 Participants Predicted before start of NCAA Tournament
Sweet 16 Picks:  8-0
Elite Eight:  4-0
Final Four:  1-1

Keys to Victory:  Kentucky

#1
Defensive Rebounding:  It
is imperative Kentucky limits Kansas to one shot and done.  In Saturday’s win over Louisville, the
Cardinals got 16 offensive boards.  The
Wildcats can’t let Kansas get that many second chance opportunities. 

#2
Maximize Transition Opportunities:  Kansas
had 17 turnovers versus Ohio State and still won.  Turn it over that many times versus Kentucky
and they’ll make you pay with terrific athletes and finishes like Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist,
Terrence Jones, point guard Marquis Teague and even shooting threats
in Doron Lamb, Darius Miller and Kyle
Wiltjer that will make you pay from the outside.  Kentucky wants to push the pace, get the
score up and have those type of hustle and energy plays off dunks and 3’s that
ignite them.

#3
Contain Robinson:  He’s
Kansas’ best player and most dangerous in terms of scoring and rebounding.  His strength in the low block gives him a
chance to maybe get Davis, arguably the nation’s best shot blocker, in foul
trouble.  With him rebounding and junior
center Jeff Withey controlling the
paint as a shot blocker, Kansas’ defense on the front-line is mighty tough.  But if Robinson finds it hard to score in the
paint, Kansas may be unable to keep up offensively.

Keys to Victory:  Kansas

#1
Survive that Early Punch:  Kansas
has gotten down double-digits in this NCAA Tournament to the likes of Purdue
and Ohio State.  They can’t afford to do
that in facing a giant like Kentucky, which overwhelms opponents with their
speed, size and athleticism.  If they do
that and the longer they stick around, then their confidence will go up against
a Kentucky team made up mostly of freshmen and sophomores.

#2
Control the Tempo:  This
is huge because if this becomes a track meet, then Kansas’ chances of winning
are slim to none.  Kentucky wants to get
out and run, push the pedal to the metal, and score as many easy baskets as
possible.  For Kansas to be successful,
they have to milk the shot clock down, try to get someone in foul trouble for Kentucky
(preferably the interior force Davis), and slow the pace down to where it gets
the Wildcats out of their comfort zone. 
This is where point guard Tyshawn
Taylor really becomes vital, being able to distribute and score.

#3
Win the 3-Point Battle:  In
College Basketball, the three-point shot is the great equalizer.  It’s something that is overstated at times,
but also true.  Kansas may not be able to
win the points in the paint battle. 
However, if they can finish +9 or better in three-pointers, then it
enhances their odds of winning.  Knowing
the shot blocking Kentucky has inside and length on the front-line that allows
them to rebound, their best source for points could come on perimeter jumpers
from Taylor, Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford.  It’ll just be a matter of taking them in
rhythm and knocking them down, enough so to keep Kentucky from building a substantial
lead and running away.

 

Pick:  Kentucky 72, Kansas 61.  It’s Kentucky’s time and Calipari’s time in
my opinion.  His Wildcats bowed out to
UCONN in the Final Four a season ago on a night where foul shooting plagued
them, much like it did his ’08 Memphis squad. 
This team has shot free-throws well for the most part, save their
Saturday night performance against Louisville. 
I don’t see this game being all that close because Kentucky’s talent is
superior, and barring a lack of focus or really poor shooting stretch, they
have the ability with their lethal transition game to blow people away, even
the strongest of competition.  On the
grand stage, expect their best effort. 
Their versatility on the offensive end, unselfishness, shot blocking and
athleticism around the basket and commitment to defending should give even a
resilient, tough-minded Jayhawks bunch trouble. 
At the end of the night, expect UK to claim its first title since 1998.

Four teams have punched their ticket to the Elite
Eight.  Four more will on Friday night as
we’ll find out who gets to join Louisville, Florida, Ohio State and Syracuse
this weekend with a chance to play for a spot in the Final Four.

Before we get to the analysis and picks, let’s review the
records of how my predictions have gone to this point in the 2012 NCAA
Tournament.

Hatfield’s Record:
Round of 64:  22-10 with 13-3 on Day 1
and 9-7 on Day 2
Round of 32:  14-2
12 of 16 Sweet 16 Participants Predicted before start of NCAA Tournament
Sweet 16 Picks on Thursday Night:  4-0

7:15 PM – #3 Baylor vs. #10 Xavier:  These are two programs on the rise with
Baylor from the Big 12 and Xavier in the Atlantic-10.  Xavier started 8-0, and then went 15-12 after
the brawl, but they have come on after getting an at-large bid, led by talented
guard Tu Holloway (21.5PPG in March in six games).  It is Xavier’s fourth Sweet 16 trip in five
seasons, so getting to this point in the tourney has become almost a routine
for them.  For Baylor, the Bears have
enjoyed a school record 29 wins.  They
have some players that could get some NBA looks for sure.  Two seasons ago, Baylor made it to the Elite
Eight and then fell to eventual National Champion Duke.  Scott Drew has a balanced attack with five
players averaging over 10 points per game.

Pierre Jackson, the junior college transfer, is a ton setter
for Baylor at the point.  He’s really
driving it to the rack well, setting people up and using his quickness to be a
catalyst.   Brady Heslip, who has
connected on 14-of-22 three-point tries and was simply unconscious from deep
against Colorado in the Round 32. 
Heslip, the nephew of former Toronto Raptors Head Coach Jay Triano, has the
ability to change this game like he did the last one if he gets hot shooting
the three-point shot.  If Baylor’s
front-court comes to play, then the Musketeers will have a daunting challenge.  Perry Jones (only 4.5PPG, 7.5RPG in the NCAA
Tournament), Quincy Acy and company have to really assert themselves early and
often as well as Quincy Miller and 6-foot-10 senior Anthony Jones.

For Xavier, they got a great performance from Kenny Frease
the last time out.  Frease had a
career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds versus Lehigh in the Round of 32, and
that was enormous because they trailed Lehigh by as many as 12 in the first
half and used a 18-6 spurt to close to break a 52-all tie.  Two others will be critical as well.  Holloway’s backcourt mate, Mark Lyons, is one
of the better shooters in the A-10 and hasn’t quite gotten off yet in the
tourney.  Andre Walker is their main
utility guy, and he’s only shooting 53% from the foul line, so if it’s close
and he goes to the line, he has to deliver. 
Dee Davis is a possible x-factor that offensively could be a real bonus
to go with Holloway, Lyons and Frease.

In the paint is where it will probably be decided.  Xavier had its way inside with Lehigh thanks
to Frease, but Baylor’s front-line, particularly Jones, may be due to break
through.  The Bears are able to do such a
good job of stretching the defense with Heslip’s shooting and Jackson creates
opportunities for his teammates running the point.  The Musketeers rely so much on Holloway, and
you can bet the Baylor defense will look to take deny him as much as
possible.  While they may not be
successful in that endeavor, it’ll be  

Pick:  Baylor by 6.

7:47 PM – #1 North Carolina vs. #13 Ohio: 
North Carolina is 10-0 since 1993 in the Sweet 16 and their 25th
appearance in the Sweet 16 is the most all-time.  Coach Roy Williams is chasing his third
National Championship for UNC since 2005. 
Meanwhile, Ohio is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1964 when
they lost to Michigan in the region finals. 
Coach John Groce has done a masterful job since taking over this program
in July of 2008.  His Bobcats are the
first MAC school to make it this far in the NCAA Tournament since Kent State in
2002. 

The storyline going into this game is the health of
sophomore point guard Kendall Marshall for North Carolina.  Marshall broke his right wrist in the Tar
Heels’ 87-73 win over Creighton in the Round of 32 in a game where he was
superb out of the gate with 13 points on 6-of-6 shooting with six assists in
the first half.  In Marshall’s absence,
the Tar Heels turn to freshman Stilman White. 
He’ll have weapons at his disposal as UNC features an imposing
front-line with Tyler Zeller (14PPG, 10.5RPG in the NCAA Tourney), John Henson
(94 blocks) and Harrison Barnes. 

The bigger issues for UNC will be taking care of the
basketball and keeping Ohio’s playmaking point guard relatively in check.  D.J. Cooper (20PPG, 4RPG, 6APG in the NCAA
Tournament) has been superb, and really is the focal point for this
perimeter-oriented Bobcats bunch. 
Defensively, Ohio averages 9.5 steals per game, placing in the Top 5 in
the country, so they know how to turn defense into instant offense.  One of the main questions for Ohio is will
they be able to get clean looks for sophomore guard Nick Kellogg (that’s TV
analyst Clark’s son) and Ohio State transfer Walter Offutt, who knocked down
four treys against South Florida? 

In the end, UNC’s front-line is overwhelming to most every
team they play.  The Tar Heels lead the
nation in rebounding margin, and that’s not an area that is a strength for the
Bobcats whatsoever.  In fact, it might be
their weakness in this game.  Ohio will
have to really catch fire from long distance and hope UNC is cold to be in
position to spring the upset late.

Pick:  UNC by 11

9:45 PM – #1 Kentucky vs. #4 Indiana:  These
are two of the best programs in the history of College Basketball.  Seven National Championships for Kentucky and
five for Indiana.  It’s the third
straight Sweet 16 trip for Kentucky, which is the only remaining Final Four
team from a year ago.  John Calipari
continues to chase that elusive title; his Memphis team in 2008 came oh so
close to cutting down the nets, leading the entire game on that Monday night
when Kansas hit a game-tying three-pointer and ended their dream in overtime.  Calipari is known for producing top draft
choices such as NBA point guards John Wall, Brandon Knight, Tyreke Evans and
Derrick Rose.  In Indiana, Calipari’s
team faces a group with great resiliency, resolve and familiarity with the
Wildcats.

Tom Crean’s Hoosiers beat Kentucky 73-72 back on December 10
on a buzzer-beater.  Things have changed
quite a bit since then.  Indiana has
gotten better, but Kentucky has vastly improved since that defeat.  Kentucky was 8-0 before that loss, and then
the Wildcats reeled off 24 straight wins. 
The matchup to watch is inside.  Big
Ten Freshman of the Year Cody Zeller takes on SEC Freshman of the Year Anthony
Davis, who resembles Marcus Camby and could be a similar type of pro.  Davis is putting up 15.5 points, 10.5 boards
and four assists per game in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s what he does on the
defensive end of the floor, blocking shots at will while staying out of foul
trouble, that has him being considered as the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Another player expected to go high in the NBA Draft,
somewhere in the Top 5, is fellow freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a versatile
stat sheet stuffer for the Wildcats.  Point
guard Marquise Teague has been great in the NCAA Tourney with averages of 18PPG,
61.9FG% and 5.5APG.  Terrence Jones, a
6-foot-9 sophomore, can be the best player on the court against anyone in the
country or be Kentucky’s fourth best player. 
Kentucky is simply loaded with so many weapons at every position; even
the likes of Kyle Wiltjer and Doron Lamb have size and shooting ability.  Indiana will need Jordan Hulls to come through
in a major way, and he shot it much better against New Mexico State than he did
against VCU.

Christian Watford scored 20 points and shot 4-of-6 from
three-point range, including the game-winner when the Hoosiers beat Kentucky in
the first meeting.  Meanwhile, Jones didn’t
play that great in the first encounter. 
I’d look for those two players to have reverse type of numbers, and for
the Wildcats to capitalize on Indiana’s mistakes.  Remember, the Hoosiers beat VCU despite 22
turnovers, and were very fortunate to erase a 12-point deficit and win versus a
quality Rams team.  But if Kentucky loses
in this NCAA Tournament, it’ll probably be because they struggle to convert
from the outside and that is the way to beat them.

Pick:  Kentucky by 8

10:17 PM – #2 Kansas vs. #11 NC State:  One
team was expected to get to this point; the other was a bubble squad that
breathed a sigh of relief on Selection Sunday. 
Kansas and NC State haven’t met in the NCAA Tournament in 26 years.  It was the 1986 Midwest Regional Final when
Larry Brown was coaching at Kansas and the late great Jim Valvano was the Head
Coach of NC State.  Kansas won, 75-67
behind 22 points from Danny Manning, a current assistant to Bill Self and the
Jayhawks.  For NC State, this is their
first Sweet 16 since 2005.  Kansas is
used to getting to this point in the Big Dance, winning the Natl. Championship
back just four years ago.

Kansas in many ways was fortunate to beat Purdue in the last
round.  The Jayhawks rallied in large
part because of their stingy defense, holding Purdue to 29% shooting in the
second half.  Thomas Robinson (13.5PPG,
13RPG in NCAA Tournament) is a Player of the Year candidate, although he’s only
shooting 36% from the field the past two games. 
He’s not the only All-American caliber player they have as guard Tyshawn
Taylor is a steady senior who gets it done on offense and defense usually.  Elijah Johnson really was the hero of that
escape for the Jayhawks with 18 points on 7-of-14 shooting, 13 points in the
second half and a huge steal and lay-up to put KU ahead with under a minute to
play.  They can’t expect him to play at
that level and get sub-par efforts from both Robinson and Taylor if they plan
on beating the Wolfpack.

Five players are averaging in double-figures for NC State in
year one under Coach Mark Gottfried.  Lorenzo
Brown is averaging 14.4 points and over seven assists per game over the past five
games for the Wolfpack in making that transition from the two-guard spot to a
point man.  C.J. Leslie has been terrific
in the NCAA Tournament with over 14 points and six boards a contest in the NCAA
Tournament while shooting over 47% from the field, and has become a much more
consistent performer during his sophomore season where he’s been arguably as
good as any ACC player in the last two months. 
In beating Georgetown, NC State got 17 offensive rebounds and did damage
from the outside with 7-of-15 shooting on three-pointers.  NC State has to be able to have success in
the painted area, and if they don’t, I think the Pack will find it hard to
knock off Kansas. 

Like many teams that get to the Final Four and even some
that go on to win the National Championship, Kansas had their moment where they
could’ve and maybe even should’ve lost against Purdue in the Round of 32.  After playing well under their potential in
that one and surviving, the Jayhawks ought to come out with a much sharper
performance against a dangerous NC St. squad. 
Brown and Leslie probably won’t get off offensively versus the defense
of Robinson and Taylor, both capable of shutting someone down even when their
shooting is up and down.

Pick:  Kansas by 4.